| "(...) The 2008 financial crisis presented two overt lessons: Lesson One is that the derivatives markets presents a systemic risk to national and world economies; Lesson Two is that the relative size of these markets is a fundamental risk to geopolitical as well as economic security. The numbers are indeed remarkable: the notional total value of the derivatives market at the end of 2012 was $694.4 trillion. Compare this to the $71.7tn global market value of the ‘real economy’ of goods and services, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), for 2012 - just over one-tenth of the face value of the derivatives market, give or take a couple of Trillion dollars. The notional value of directly-traded off-exchange derivative markets - Over-the-Counter (OTC) trading-alone amounted to $642.1tn, a sum about seven times greater than global GDP. While impressive, these headline figures need to be qualified: they represent the sum total of claims traded on the market, not how much would have to be paid were everyone in the market to immediately cash-out. This latter ‘gross market value’ at end-2012 is estimated at $ 24,7tn, just under four percent of the notional value of the market or just under a third of global GDP; or, for further comparison, slightly more than the combined GDP of the two largest national economies that year, the USA ($15.7tn) and China ($8,2tn). (...)" |
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