"(...) The coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak has already brought considerable human suffering and major
economic disruption. In China, containment efforts have involved quarantines and widespread restrictions
on labour mobility and travel, resulting in unplanned delays in restarting factories after the Lunar New Year
holiday and sharp cutbacks in many service sector activities. These measures imply a sizeable output
contraction whilst the effects of the outbreak persist. Subsequent outbreaks in other countries, including
Korea and Italy, have also prompted containment measures such as quarantines and border closures,
albeit on a smaller scale. The adverse consequences of these developments for other countries are significant,
including the direct disruption to global supply chains, weaker final demand for imported goods and services,
and the wider regional declines in international tourism and business travel. Risk aversion has increased in
financial markets, with the US 10-year interest rate falling to a record low and equity prices declining sharply,
commodity prices have dropped, and business and consumer confidence have turned down. (...)" |