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English
AutorIn 1:
Barro, Robert J.
AutorIn 2:
Ursua, José F.
AutorIn 3:
Weng, Joanna
HerausgeberIn 1:
CESifo
Titel:
The Coronavirus and the Great Influenza Epidemic
Untertitel:
Lessons from the “Spanish Flu” for the Coronavirus’s Potential Effects on Mortality and Economic Activity
Ort:
München
Jahr:
2020
Reihe:
CESifo Working Papers
Abstract:
"(...) Mortality and economic contraction during the 1918-1920 Great Influenza Epidemic provide plausible upper bounds for outcomes under the coronavirus (COVID-19). Data for 43 countries imply flu-related deaths in 1918- 1920 of 39 million, 2.0 percent of world population, implying 150 million deaths when applied to current population. Regressions with annual information on flu deaths 1918-1920 and war deaths during WWI imply flu- generated economic declines for GDP and consumption in the typical country of 6 and 8 percent, respectively. There is also some evidence that higher flu death rates decreased realized real returns on stocks and, especially, on short-term government bills. (...)"
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URL:
 CESifo Working Papers