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English
AutorIn 1:
Arntz, Melanie
AutorIn 2:
Gregory, Terry
AutorIn 3:
Zierahn, Ulrich
HerausgeberIn 1:
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)
Titel:
The Risk of Automation for Jobs in OECD Countries: A Comparative Analysis
Ort:
Paris
Verlag:
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)
Jahr:
2016
Reihe:
OECD SOCIAL, EMPLOYMENT AND MIGRATION WORKING PAPERS No. 189
Abstract:
"(…) In recent years, there has been a revival of concerns that automation and digitalisation might after all result in a jobless future. The debate has been fuelled by studies for the US and Europe arguing that a substantial share of jobs is at “risk of computerisation”. These studies follow an occupation-based approach proposed by Frey and Osborne (2013), i.e. they assume that whole occupations rather than single job-tasks are automated by technology. As we argue, this might lead to an overestimation of Job automatibility, as occupations labelled as high-risk occupations often still contain a substantial share of tasks that are hard to automate. Our paper serves two purposes. Firstly, we estimate the job automatibility of Jobs for 21 OECD countries based on a task-based approach. In contrast to other studies, we take into account the heterogeneity of workers’ tasks within occupations. Overall, we find that, on average across the 21 OECD countries, 9 % of jobs are automatable. The threat from technological advances thus seems much less pronounced compared to the occupation-based approach. We further find heterogeneities across OECD countries. For instance, while the share of automatable jobs is 6 % in Korea, the corresponding share is 12% in Austria. Differences between countries may reflect general differences in workplace organisation, differences in previous investments into automation technologies as well as differences in the education of workers across countries. (…)"
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 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)