| The infection fatality rate, the probability of dying for a person who is infected, is one of the most important
features of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. The expected total mortality burden of
COVID-19 is directly related to the infection fatality rate. Moreover, justification for various non-
pharmacological public health interventions depends on the infection fatality rate. Some stringent
interventions that potentially also result in more noticeable collateral harms may be considered appropriate, if
the infection fatality rate is high. Conversely, the same measures may fall short of acceptable risk–benefit
thresholds, if the infection fatality rate is low. Early data from China suggested a 3.4% case fatality rate and
that asymptomatic infections were uncommon, thus the case fatality rate and infection fatality rate would be
about the same. Mathematical models have suggested that 40–81% of the world population could be
infected,4,5 and have lowered the infection fatality rate to 1.0% or 0.9%.5,6 Since March 2020, many studies
have estimated the spread of the virus causing COVID-19 – severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2
(SARS-CoV-2) – in various locations by evaluating seroprevalence. I used the prevalence data from these
studies to infer estimates of the COVID-19 infection fatality rate. (...)" |
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World Health Organization (WHO)