|"(...) It is widely discussed that the pandemic has impacted on educational inequalities across the world.
However, in contrast to data on health or unemployment, data on education outcomes are not timely. Hence,
we have extremely limited knowledge about the actual impact of the pandemic on learning outcomes at the
national and the cross-national level. As it might take years to get new comparative evidence on the actual
extent of the problem, this paper uses the latest large scale international student assessment data from
before the pandemic, the Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS) 2019 and applies
simple descriptive analysis, regressions and logical deductions to map potential consequences of the Covid-19
crisis across Europe. We obtain the relative trajectories of children’s learning loss and its unequal distribution
from information on home and school resources, the importance of these resources for learning outcomes and
countries’ school closure duration policies and compare Covid-19 related risk of learning loss between
European countries. Results based on 4th graders’ school achievements indicate that throughout Europe
educational inequalities between and within countries are likely to increase substantially. Some European
countries are highly likely to face already an education crisis. (...)"